Critical Raw Materials, Economic Statecraft and Europe’s Dependence on China

The People's Republic of China (PRC) holds a dominant position along wide swaths of critical mineral and technology value chains that are necessary for achieving Europe's decarbonisation policy goals. Many fear that the PRC will pursue increasingly coercive measures to leverage its supply chain advantage in pursuit of broader geopolitical objectives. Examining three mineral groups in which Beijing has enhanced supply chain restrictions in 2023, namely rare earth elements, gallium and graphite, highlights that the PRC's priority has long been the pursuit of economic and industrial policy goals rather than a broader diplomatic agenda, though this could change. Arguably, leveraging raw materials is ultimately a weak form of economic statecraft, eliciting effective diversification strategies that in turn weaken a supplier state's sources of leverage. Europe's response, while slow to emerge, has been a strategy to reinvest in its own mineral extraction, refining and recycling capacities, on the one hand, and diversify global supply chains by expanding its strategic partnerships, on the other.