Brain network dynamics predict moments of surprise across contexts

Abstract We experience surprise when reality conflicts with our expectations. When we encounter such expectation violations in psychological tasks and daily life, are we experiencing completely different forms of surprise? Or is surprise a fundamental psychological process with shared neural bases across contexts? To address this question, we identified a brain network model, the surprise edge-fluctuation-based predictive model (EFPM), whose regional interaction dynamics measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) predicted surprise in an adaptive learning task. The same model generalized to predict surprise as a separate group of individuals watched suspenseful basketball games and as a third group watched videos violating psychological expectations. The surprise EFPM also uniquely predicts surprise, capturing expectation violations better than models built from other brain networks, fMRI measures, and behavioral metrics. These results suggest that shared neurocognitive processes underlie surprise across contexts and that distinct experiences can be translated into the common space of brain dynamics.