Plasma ammonia levels predict hospitalisation with liver-related complications and mortality in clinically stable outpatients with cirrhosis

•Ammonia is an independent predictor of both hospitalisation with liver-related complications and mortality in stable outpatients with cirrhosis.•Ammonia performs better than traditional severity scores in predicting liver-related complications.•A cut-off level of 1.4x the upper limit of normal ammonia defines the risk of both hospitalisation with liver-related complications and mortality.•Ammonia is a key variable for the prediction of liver-related complications in a derivation cohort and upon external validation. Background & AimsHyperammonaemia is central in the pathogenesis of hepatic encephalopathy. It also has pleiotropic deleterious effects on several organ systems, such as immune function, sarcopenia, energy metabolism and portal hypertension. This study was performed to test the hypothesis that severity of hyperammonaemia is a risk factor for liver-related complications in clinically stable outpatients with cirrhosis.MethodsWe studied 754 clinically stable outpatients with cirrhosis from 3 independent liver units. Baseline ammonia levels were corrected to the upper limit of normal (AMM-ULN) for the reference laboratory. The primary endpoint was hospitalisation with liver-related complications (a composite endpoint of bacterial infection, variceal bleeding, overt hepatic encephalopathy, or new onset or worsening of ascites). Multivariable competing risk frailty analyses using fast unified random forests were performed to predict complications and mortality. External validation was carried out using prospective data from 130 patients with cirrhosis in an independent tertiary liver centre.ResultsOverall, 260 (35%) patients were hospitalised with liver-related complications. On multivariable analysis, AMM-ULN was an independent predictor of both liver-related complications (hazard ratio 2.13; 95% CI 1.89–2.40; p <0.001) and mortality (hazard ratio 1.45; 95% CI 1.20–1.76; p <0.001). The AUROC of AMM-ULN was 77.9% for 1-year liver-related complications, which is higher than traditional severity scores. Statistical differences in survival were found between high and low levels of AMM-ULN both for complications and mortality (p <0.001) using 1.4 as the optimal cut-off from the training set. AMM-ULN remained a key variable for the prediction of complications within the random forests model in the derivation cohort and upon external validation.ConclusionAmmonia is an independent predictor of hospitalisation with liver-related complications and mortality in clinically stable outpatients with cirrhosis and performs better than traditional prognostic scores in predicting complications.Lay summaryWe conducted a prospective cohort study evaluating the association of blood ammonia levels with the risk of adverse outcomes in 754 patients with stable cirrhosis across 3 independent liver units. We found that ammonia is a key determinant that helps to predict which patients will be hospitalised, develop liver-related complications and die; this was confirmed in an independent cohort of patients. Hyperammonaemia is central in the pathogenesis of hepatic encephalopathy. It also has pleiotropic deleterious effects on several organ systems, such as immune function, sarcopenia, energy metabolism and portal hypertension. This study was performed to test the hypothesis that severity of hyperammonaemia is a risk factor for liver-related complications in clinically stable outpatients with cirrhosis. We studied 754 clinically stable outpatients with cirrhosis from 3 independent liver units. Baseline ammonia levels were corrected to the upper limit of normal (AMM-ULN) for the reference laboratory. The primary endpoint was hospitalisation with liver-related complications (a composite endpoint of bacterial infection, variceal bleeding, overt hepatic encephalopathy, or new onset or worsening of ascites). Multivariable competing risk frailty analyses using fast unified random forests were performed to predict complications and mortality. External validation was carried out using prospective data from 130 patients with cirrhosis in an independent tertiary liver centre. Overall, 260 (35%) patients were hospitalised with liver-related complications. On multivariable analysis, AMM-ULN was an independent predictor of both liver-related complications (hazard ratio 2.13; 95% CI 1.89–2.40; p <0.001) and mortality (hazard ratio 1.45; 95% CI 1.20–1.76; p <0.001). The AUROC of AMM-ULN was 77.9% for 1-year liver-related complications, which is higher than traditional severity scores. Statistical differences in survival were found between high and low levels of AMM-ULN both for complications and mortality (p <0.001) using 1.4 as the optimal cut-off from the training set. AMM-ULN remained a key variable for the prediction of complications within the random forests model in the derivation cohort and upon external validation. Ammonia is an independent predictor of hospitalisation with liver-related complications and mortality in clinically stable outpatients with cirrhosis and performs better than traditional prognostic scores in predicting complications.