Predictors of Unfavorable Pathology in Patients with Incidental (pT1a–T1b) Prostate Cancer

Incidental prostate cancer (IPCa) is encountered in 10% of surgical procedures for benign prostatic obstruction (BPO). Identification of patients with underlying detrimental prostate cancer is paramount for tailored treatment decision-making, but guideline recommendations for this setting are lacking.To highlight clinical and histological characteristics related to BPO surgery that may predict IPCa with unfavorable pathology.We included men with IPCa who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) in the short term after IPCa diagnosis. Two cohorts were built according to final pathology for the RP specimen: unfavorable pathology (International Society of Urological Pathology [ISUP] grade group [GG] ≥3 and/or ≥pT3a and/or pN1) versus favorable pathology.We performed multivariate regression analysis for the endpoint, which was unfavorable pathology for the RP specimen. Using the model estimates for prostate-specific antigen (PSA), ISUP GG, age, and prostate volume, we established a model for estimating the risk of unfavorable histopathology.Overall, 112 patients were included in the final assessment. On multivariate analysis, PSA (odds ratio [OR] 1.083, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.003-1.170; p = 0.042), ISUP GG for the specimen from BPO surgery (OR 3.090; 95% CI 1.129-8.457; p = 0.028), and age (OR 1.121, 95% CI 1.026-1.225; p = 0.012) were independent predictors for unfavorable histopathology. On receiver operating characteristic analysis, the area under the curve was 0.751. A novel calculator was developed to predict adverse pathology for men with IPCa. The study is limited by its retrospective design.For men with IPCa, PSA before surgery for BPO, ISUP GG, and age are independent predictors of unfavorable disease. Our results might improve preoperative risk assessment for patient counseling.We developed a novel calculator to estimate the risk of underlying detrimental disease in men diagnosed with prostate cancer at surgery for benign prostatic obstruction.