Sustainable Livelihoods in Rural Areas under the Shock of Climate Change: Evidence from China Labor-Force Dynamic Survey

The threat of climate change to the sustainability of farmers’ livelihoods is becoming more significant. Research on the impact of climate change on the sustainability of farmers’ livelihoods could provide a scientific basis for enhancing farmers’ adaptability to climate change, reducing farmers’ livelihood vulnerability, and promoting the formulation of governmental adaptation strategies. Although studies have assessed the impact of climate change on the sustainability of farmers’ livelihoods, their analysis units have been aggregated. Therefore, this study was grouped based on geographical location (north and south regions), and then an additional grouping was conducted according to the internal economic factors of each region. Using data from China’s labor-force dynamic survey as our sample, this study measured the sustainable livelihood in agricultural households. This research provided a method to quantify the sustainability of farmers’ livelihoods based on measurements of poverty vulnerability. Additionally, using the annual average temperature as the core explanatory variable to describe climate change, this study evaluated the impact and heterogeneity of climate change on the sustainability of farmers’ livelihoods and replaced the annual average temperature with the normalized vegetation index to conduct a robustness test. The empirical study showed that the average annual temperature significantly decreased the sustainability of farmers’ livelihoods. The average annual temperature change had a greater impact on farmers in the southern provinces as compared to those in the north. Southern coastal regions, eastern coastal regions, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the northeast regions were the key areas of concern. Finally, considering the current risk vulnerability of farmers, we concluded that crop breeding should be oriented to the trend of climate change, farmers’ risk prevention awareness should be increased, financial tools should be enhanced to mitigate the impact of meteorological disasters, an appropriate sustainability developmental evaluation index should be implemented, and the construction of agrometeorological disaster prevention and mitigation infrastructure should be advanced.