A shallow convolutional neural network predicts prognosis of lung cancer patients in multi-institutional computed tomography image datasets

Lung cancer is the most common fatal malignancy in adults worldwide, and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) accounts for 85% of lung cancer diagnoses. Computed tomography (CT) is routinely used in clinical practice to determine lung cancer treatment and assess prognosis. Here, we developed LungNet, a shallow convolutional neural network for predicting outcomes of NSCLC patients. We trained and evaluated LungNet on four independent cohorts of NSCLC patients from four medical centers: Stanford Hospital (n = 129), H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute (n = 185), MAASTRO Clinic (n = 311) and Charité - Universitätsmedizin (n=84). We show that outcomes from LungNet are predictive of overall survival in all four independent survival cohorts as measured by concordance indices of 0.62, 0.62, 0.62 and 0.58 on cohorts 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Further, the survival model can be used, via transfer learning, for classifying benign vs malignant nodules on the Lung Image Database Consortium (n = 1010), with improved performance (AUC=0.85) versus training from scratch (AUC=0.82). LungNet can be used as a noninvasive predictor for prognosis in NSCLC patients and can facilitate interpretation of CT images for lung cancer stratification and prognostication.