Fluctuations in routine blood count might signal severe immune-related adverse events in melanoma patients treated with nivolumab

Although nivolumab significantly prolongs survival of metastatic melanoma, about 10% of patients experience severe, even fatal immune-related adverse events (irAEs). Biomarkers to predict irAEs are, therefore, of great interest.We aimed to correlate changes in routine blood count parameters to the occurrence of serious irAEs (grade 3/4 [G3/4] or lung/gastrointestinal [lung/GI] irAEs) in patients with melanoma who were treated with nivolumab.We retrospectively analyzed data from 101 patient with melanoma treated with nivolumab from 8 institutes in Japan. We used logistic regression analyses to investigate associations between severe irAEs and fluctuations in routine blood count parameters (total white blood cell [WBC] count, relative neutrophil, monocyte, lymphocyte, and eosinophil count) during the treatment. Receiver-operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff value for the blood count parameters and area under the curve (AUC).Univariate analysis revealed that G3/4 irAEs were associated with increased total WBC count (P=0.034, cutoff value=+27%, AUC=0.68, odds ratio [OR]=1.58) and decreased relative lymphocyte count (RLC, P=0.042, cutoff value=-23%, AUC=0.65, OR=1.65). However, multivariate analysis showed that the same factors, increased WBC count (P=0.014, cutoff value=+59.1%, AUC=0.79, OR=6.04) and decreased RLC (P=0.012, cutoff value=-32.3%, AUC=0.81, OR=5.01) were independent factors associated with lung/GI irAEs.Our results suggest that increased WBC count and decreased RLC are associated with G3/4 and lung/GI irAEs. Our analysis was based on the data point at which irAE occurrence was noticed and, therefore, these factors are not predictive, however, they could be a "signal" of severe irAE occurrence in patients with melanoma treated with nivolumab.