Survival Prediction After Neurosurgical Resection of Brain Metastases: A Machine Learning Approach

Current prognostic models for brain metastases (BMs) have been constructed and validated almost entirely with data from patients receiving up-front radiotherapy, leaving uncertainty about surgical patients.To build and validate a model predicting 6-month survival after BM resection using different machine learning algorithms.An institutional database of 1062 patients who underwent resection for BM was split into an 80:20 training and testing set. Seven different machine learning algorithms were trained and assessed for performance; an established prognostic model for patients with BM undergoing radiotherapy, the diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment, was also evaluated. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) and calibration.The logistic regression showed the best performance with an AUC of 0.71 in the hold-out test set, a calibration slope of 0.76, and a calibration intercept of 0.03. The diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment had an AUC of 0.66. Patients were stratified into regular-risk, high-risk and very high-risk groups for death at 6 months; these strata strongly predicted both 6-month and longitudinal overall survival ( P < .0005). The model was implemented into a web application that can be accessed through http://brainmets.morethanml.com .We developed and internally validated a prediction model that accurately predicts 6-month survival after neurosurgical resection for BM and allows for meaningful risk stratification. Future efforts should focus on external validation of our model.