An ultrasound-based nomogram model in the assessment of pathological complete response of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer

We aim to predict the pathological complete response (pCR) of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in breast cancer patients by constructing a Nomogram based on radiomics models, clinicopathological features, and ultrasound features.Ultrasound images of 464 breast cancer patients undergoing NAC were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were further divided into the training cohort and the validation cohort. The radiomics signatures (RS) before NAC treatment (RS1), after 2 cycles of NAC (RS2), and the different signatures between RS2 and RS1 (Delta-RS/RS1) were obtained. LASSO regression and random forest analysis were used for feature screening and model development, respectively. The independent predictors of pCR were screened from clinicopathological features, ultrasound features, and radiomics models by using univariate and multivariate analysis. The Nomogram model was constructed based on the optimal radiomics model and clinicopathological and ultrasound features. The predictive performance was evaluated with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.We found that RS2 had better predictive performance for pCR. In the validation cohort, the area under the ROC curve was 0.817 (95%CI: 0.734-0.900), which was higher than RS1 and Delta-RS/RS1. The Nomogram based on clinicopathological features, ultrasound features, and RS2 could accurately predict the pCR value, and had the area under the ROC curve of 0.897 (95%CI: 0.866-0.929) in the validation cohort. The decision curve analysis showed that the Nomogram model had certain clinical practical value.The Nomogram based on radiomics signatures after two cycles of NAC, and clinicopathological and ultrasound features have good performance in predicting the NAC efficacy of breast cancer.