Seismicity and Fault Interaction in the Gulf of Aqaba

Abstract The Gulf of Aqaba is considered one of the most seismotectonically active regions in the Middle East. This study analyzes the seismic activity from 1983 to 2018 to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of the events in the Gulf’s three basins. The seismic activity is characterized by conventional mainshock–aftershock sequences and swarm activity. Most activity is located in the Aragonese basin, while the Dakar basin shows less seismic activity. The b-value was calculated for the three basins from the declustered catalogue, representing the fingerprint of the transform fault. Within the Aragonese, three significant earthquakes occurred in 1993, 1995, and 2015 with moment magnitude (Mw) of 5.8, 7.2, and 5.2, respectively. An intermediate seismic quiescence preceded the three earthquakes. The quiescence time for the 1995 earthquake began at the tail of the aftershocks of the 1993 mainshock, suggesting that the two earthquakes were not entirely independent. At the tail of the 1995 earthquake aftershocks, the seismic activity spread across the Gulf, increasing in frequency and decreasing in magnitude. A similar pattern was observed for the seismic quiescence preceding the 2015 mainshock. The occurrence of the three significant and proximal earthquakes in the Aragonese region over a 22-year interval, with the described similarities, suggests a link between these earthquakes. Finally, the Coulomb stress transfer shows that the 1993 source fault seems to increase the stress loading on the 1995 left-lateral strike-slip fault, and the latter would also increase the stress transfer on the 2015 left-lateral strike-slip fault.