Cropping System Stability Drives SOC Sequestration and Increases Saturation Deficit in Hot Arid Durum Wheat Cropping Systems

Stability analysis has been extensively employed in evaluating the genotype x environment interaction, but it can also be conveniently applied to cropping systems. This study applied stability analysis to a long-term experiment (1998–2016) conducted in an experimental farm in southern Italy. The experiment involved two standard semi-arid cropping systems (WW—durum wheat monocropping and WP—durum wheat–field pea rotation), with two nitrogen fertilization levels (60 kg ha−1—N60 and 120 kg ha−1—N120), along with an unfertilized control (N0). Soil organic carbon (SOC) was estimated in all treatments at the end of the experiment to investigate the potential for SOC sequestration and soil C saturation by analyzing the stability of all investigated cropping conditions in relation to SOC sequestration. The study also investigated the relationship between C input and SOC sequestration. SOC sequestration per year was higher in WW than in WP, confirming that including legumes in the rotation did not enhance the SOC content. Similarly, the positive impact of nitrogen application on biomass yield did not affect SOC accumulation. The stability analysis revealed that over the long term, WW exhibited greater stability than WP, suggesting that, in semi-arid environments, a more stable cropping system can enhance soil carbon sequestration, with nitrogen fertilization exerting a scarce influence. Segmented regression analysis identified two distinct patterns of SOC accumulation based on C input, separated by a definite threshold of C input (breakpoint) quantified at 14.7 Mg ha−1. It was found that the steady-state C level, achieved after the accumulation of this C input, was reached much faster in WW than in WP, in which it could only be inferred at 23 years. In conclusion, this study underscores the role of cropping system stability in driving SOC sequestration. Furthermore, it emphasizes the potential of stability analysis in assisting stakeholders in refining their strategies for different cropping conditions in dry and rainy environments.