Evaluation of urban flooding and potential exposure risk in central and southern Liaoning urban agglomeration, China

Urban flooding is an important natural hazard that affects urban security in the context of global climate change and urbanization. The simulation of stormwater inundation and risk assessment in urban environments is critical for the sustainable development of urban agglomerations. However, few studies have focused on rainstorm flooding at the urban agglomeration scale. In this study, the Central and Southern Liaoning Urban Agglomeration (CSLN) was selected a case study. A method was proposed to assess the urban flooding and potential exposure risk. The urban flooding of CSLN was characterized by the average flooding depth (AFD) of each sub-catchment, and exposure risk was indicated by potential regional and population exposure risk. The results illustrate that the AFD increased with an increase in the rainfall return period, especially in the urban core. The AFD of each city in the CSLN ranged from 10 to 80 mm, and there were strong differences among cities. The spatial distribution of urban flooding in the nine cities presented aggregation characteristics, and hotspots were mainly concentrated in the old urban districts. The potential regional exposure risk tended to increase as the rainfall return period increased from 10 to 100 years; however, there were significant differences among cities. Among them, the area of potential regional exposure risk in Shenyang was the largest, increasing from 365 km2 under a 10-year rainfall return period to 463 km2 under a 100-year rainfall return period. The largest proportion of potential regional exposure risk was in Anshan, which increased from 3% under 10-year to 13.8% under 100-year rainfall return periods. Most cities had some potential population exposure risk. More residents in populous cities, such as Shenyang and Dalian, were subject to higher exposure risks. However, Benxi, Anshan, and Tieling had a high proportion of severely affected areas, although the size of their cities is much smaller than that of Shenyang and Dalian. Urban flooding and potential exposure risk were apparently higher in the business and government zones than in the industrial and greenspace zones. These methods and results may provide references for rainstorm flooding mitigation through urban planning in urban agglomeration areas.