Short-term fertility intentions and outcomes: similarities and differences between childless women and mothers

Research frequently reveals the gap between women's fertility intentions and childbearing behaviour. Moreover, while the fertility intentions of childless women and mothers with one child can be very similar, the extent to which those intentions are realised is frequently different. In search for the reasons for these discrepancies, we propose how Bayesian methods can be used to investigate both time-invariant and time-variant factors influencing fertility intentions and outcomes while considering parity at the same time. In this way, we aim to provide new insight into the intention – behaviour link. We provide evidence from Poland, a country in which childless women are more likely to realize their strong positive fertility intentions than mothers. Our results indicate that in the case of Polish women, some factors shape the fertility intentions of childless women and mothers similarly. However, we also show that, in the short term, the same factors affect women's fertility intentions and childbearing in substantially different and even contradictory ways. We demonstrate that, inter alia, having a job stimulates the fertility intentions of childless women only. In contrast, it negatively influences the likelihood of giving birth for both childless women and mothers.