Identifying and warning against spatial conflicts of land use from an ecological environment perspective: A case study of the Ili River Valley, China

Spatial conflicts of land use (SCLU) arise during land-use change, which causes an imbalance of land-use spatial patterns and negatively affects society, the economy, and ecology. Previous research has focused on identifying and measuring SCLU, with less attention on the negative effects. The incorporation of risk assessment methods to evaluate potential conflict risks has been limited. The current study presents methods for measuring SCLU and assessing potential conflict risks from the ecological environment perspective. The spatial comprehensive conflicts index and potential conflict risk index were used to identify and measure the SCLU and to assess and warn against potential conflict risks, respectively, based on a case study in the Ili River Valley in China. The impacts of terrain restriction and land-use change on the SCLU were explored. Results indicate that (1) the SCLU area in the Ili River Valley decreased by 2,608 km2 from 2010 to 2020, compared to the previous decade, the degree of conflict weakened, and the main body of the SCLU gradually shifted northwest. (2) The potential risk areas cover 20,268 km2 in 2020–2030 and are mainly distributed in the "Khorgas City–Huocheng County–Yining City–Yining County" group of towns, as well as along the Ili–Kunes rivers and in the ecological protection zone in the south of the Ili River Valley, which shows the clustering along the city and distribution along the river in the spatial pattern. (3) Topography had a significant impact on the SCLU, and the main types of land-use change in the severe-conflict zone were the reduction of grassland and the expansion of arable and built-up land. For future conflict mitigation in the Ili River Valley, cautioning against urban sprawl and safeguarding land ecological security is critical. This study systematically investigates and analyzes SCLU across three dimensions: theory, methodology, and application to produce a theoretical and practical framework to identify SCLU and assess potential conflict risks.