Forecasting the potential of global marine shipping carbon emission under artificial intelligence based on a novel multivariate discrete grey model

Purpose To achieve sustainable development in shipping, accurately identifying the impact of artificial intelligence on shipping carbon emissions and predicting these emissions is of utmost importance. Design/methodology/approach A multivariable discrete grey prediction model (WFTDGM) based on weakening buffering operator is established. Furthermore, the optimal nonlinear parameters are determined by Grey Wolf optimization algorithm to improve the prediction performance, enhancing the model’s predictive performance. Subsequently, global data on artificial intelligence and shipping carbon emissions are employed to validate the effectiveness of our new model and chosen algorithm. Findings To demonstrate the applicability and robustness of the new model in predicting marine shipping carbon emissions, the new model is used to forecast global marine shipping carbon emissions. Additionally, a comparative analysis is conducted with five other models. The empirical findings indicate that the WFTDGM (1, N) model outperforms other comparative models in overall efficacy, with MAPE for both the training and test sets being less than 4%, specifically at 0.299% and 3.489% respectively. Furthermore, the out-of-sample forecasting results suggest an upward trajectory in global shipping carbon emissions over the subsequent four years. Currently, the application of artificial intelligence in mitigating shipping-related carbon emissions has not achieved the desired inhibitory impact. Practical implications This research not only deepens understanding of the mechanisms through which artificial intelligence influences shipping carbon emissions but also provides a scientific basis for developing effective emission reduction strategies in the shipping industry, thereby contributing significantly to green shipping and global carbon reduction efforts. Originality/value The multi-variable discrete grey prediction model developed in this paper effectively mitigates abnormal fluctuations in time series, serving as a valuable reference for promoting global green and low-carbon transitions and sustainable economic development. Furthermore, based on the findings of this paper, a grey prediction model with even higher predictive performance can be constructed by integrating it with other algorithms.