Prognostic implications of the extent of downstaging after neoadjuvant therapy for oesophageal adenocarcinoma and oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract Background There are few data evaluating the extent of downstaging in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma and oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and the difference in outcomes for a similar pathological stage in neoadjuvant-naive patients. The aim of this study was to characterize the prognostic value of downstaging extent in patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy for oesophageal cancer. Methods Oesophageal adenocarcinoma and oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients receiving either neoadjuvant chemotherapy or neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy between 2004 and 2017 were identified from the National Cancer Database. The extent of downstaging was defined as the extent of migration between groups (for example stage IVa to IIIb = one stage). Cox multivariable regression was used to produce adjusted models for downstaging extent. Results Of 13 594 patients, 11 355 with oesophageal adenocarcinoma and 2239 with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma were included. In oesophageal adenocarcinoma, patients with downstaged disease by three or more stages (hazards ratio (HR) 0.40, 95 per cent c.i. 0.36 to 0.44, P < 0.001), two stages (HR 0.43, 95 per cent c.i. 0.39 to 0.48, P < 0.001), or one stage (HR 0.57, 95 per cent c.i. 0.52 to 0.62, P < 0.001) had significantly longer survival than those with upstaged disease in adjusted analyses. In oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, patients with downstaged disease by three or more stages had significantly longer survival than those with less downstaged disease, no change, or upstaged disease. Patients with downstaged disease by three or more stages (HR 0.55, 95 per cent c.i. 0.43 to 0.71, P < 0.001), two stages (HR 0.58, 95 per cent c.i. 0.46 to 0.73, P < 0.001), or one stage (HR 0.69, 95 per cent c.i. 0.55 to 0.86, P = 0.001) had significantly longer survival than those with upstaged disease in adjusted analyses. Conclusion The extent of downstaging is an important prognosticator, whereas the optimal neoadjuvant therapy remains controversial. Identifying biomarkers associated with response to neoadjuvant regimens may permit individualized treatment.