Temporal and spatial heterogeneity of land use, urbanization, and ecosystem service value in China: A national-scale analysis

Ecosystem service value (ESV) is increasingly influenced by land use/land cover (LULC). At the same time, China's extensive urbanization over the past 40 years has reduced ESV, highlighting a pressing need for spatial studies. However, few studies on the spatial relationship between LULC, urbanization, and ESV, especially at the national level, represent a significant gap in this field. In this research aims, we aim to fill this gap by examining their spatial relationships by studying 279 prefecture-level cities in China. Furthermore, to understand the changing dynamics, we studied the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the effects of LULC and urbanization on ESV in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 using a multiscale geographically weighted regression model. Regarding LULC, the results show that the impact of land use intensity on ESV is significantly negative nationwide, and the trend continued to strengthen from 2005 to 2020. There was significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the effects of land use diversity on ESV, with negative effects in the north and a positive impact in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Concerning urbanization, the association between ESV and different types of urbanization varied greatly over space and time. Our findings suggest that policymakers should pay attention to compact land development, optimize land use structure, and promote the mixed use of land on the basis of rational planning in urban layouts, to mitigate the negative impacts of urbanization and LULC changes on ESV.