过度自信效应
乐观 主义
代理(统计)
计量经济学
经济
精算学
心理学
社会心理学
统计
数学
作者
Paul Hribar,Holly Yang
标识
DOI:10.1111/1911-3846.12144
摘要
Abstract This paper examines how overconfidence affects the properties of management forecasts. Using both the “over‐optimism” and “miscalibration” dimensions of overconfidence to generate our predictions, we examine three research questions. First, we examine whether overconfidence increases the likelihood of issuing a forecast. Second, we examine whether overconfidence increases the amount of optimism in management forecasts. Third, we examine whether overconfidence increases the precision of the forecast. Using both options‐ and press‐based measures to proxy for individual overconfidence, we find support for all three research questions.
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