The role of state uncertainty in the dynamics of dopamine

Reinforcement learning models of the basal ganglia map the phasic dopamine signal to reward prediction errors (RPEs). Conventional models assert that, when a stimulus predicts a reward with fixed delay, dopamine activity during the delay should converge to baseline through learning. However, recent studies have found that dopamine ramps up before reward in certain conditions even after learning, thus challenging the conventional models. In this work, we show that sensory feedback causes an unbiased learner to produce RPE ramps. Our model predicts that when feedback gradually decreases during a trial, dopamine activity should resemble a "bump," whose ramp-up phase should, furthermore, be greater than that of conditions where the feedback stays high. We trained mice on a virtual navigation task with varying brightness, and both predictions were empirically observed. In sum, our theoretical and experimental results reconcile the seemingly conflicting data on dopamine behaviors under the RPE hypothesis.