SDG-oriented multi-scenario sustainable land-use simulation under the background of urban expansion

With the continuous improvement of urbanization level and the continuous expansion of city scale, there are some unreasonable land development and utilization problems, which will make the contradiction between people and land more prominent and the risk of ecological environment deterioration more serious. It hinders the sustainable land use (SLU) and then affects the realization of regional Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDGs have become a programmatic document for all countries in the world to implement sustainable development. It provides a guideline and direction for the sustainable urban expansion. The sustainable urban expansion promotes the realization of SDGs worldwide. By combining the SDGs with the urban SLU, this paper obtains the optimized future land-use demand of the multi-scenario city and the urban expansion simulation scenario to the SDGs under the multi-scenario through the uncertain mathematical model (MIFCCP) and the spatial simulation model (PLUS). We find that firstly, the net profit of land use (LNB) reaches the highest value under the economic development scenario (ED), when the probability of environmental constraint violation p = 0.01 and p = 0.15, LNB = [2625.48, 3244.98] × 109 CNY, and [2646.95, 3271.51] × 109 CNY. Ecosystem service value (ESV) reached the highest value under the sustainable development scenario (SD), when p = 0.01 and p = 0.15, ESV = [75.34, 93.12] × 109 CNY, and [72.62, 95.56] × 109 CNY. The net carbon emissions from land use (LNC) reached the minimum value in SD scenario, and when p = 0.01 and p = 0.15, the LNC reached [57.46, 71.02] × 106 ton and [56.12, 76.04] × 106 ton. Secondly, the contribution degree of 15 driving factors to the change of local types is excavated, among which, the driving factors of traffic stations have the highest contribution degree to the change of construction land and cultivated land, and the third-class roads have the highest contribution degree to the change of wetland area. Furthermore, by analyzing the indicators related to SLU in SDGs, we can build an optimization model of land use quantity structure under uncertain conditions, and the optimized results can meet the targets of economic benefits, ecological benefits, and net carbon emissions of land use under different development plans. By linking SDGs and SLU, the coupled model framework can provide scientific basis for urban land expansion strategy based on ecological environment constraints and scientific support for sustainable management of land use.