Promoting sustainable development by mitigation of natural habitat quality decline through multifunctional urban land use: Insights from multi-scenario simulation

Extensive urban expansion poses major threats to natural habitat quality (NHQ) and undermines the potential to achieve Sustainable Development Goals. However, knowledge of whether and how multifunctional urban land use (MFULU) will mitigate NHQ decline in the process of future urban expansion is still insufficient. Therefore, this study developed a theoretical framework for mitigating NHQ decline via MFULU, and examined the mitigation based on multi-scenario simulation using the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models. Three future scenarios each including MFULU and non-MFULU modes were considered in simulation: Business as Usual, Economic Development, and Ecological Priority. The results showed natural habitats encroached by urban expansion in MFULU modes is less, less aggregated, and more irregular than in non-MFULU modes under all scenarios, especially those with moderate and higher NHQ levels. Forecasted natural habitats are more aggregated and more regular in MFULU modes than in non-MFULU modes under all scenarios. These results verified MFULU's positive contributions in preserving natural habitats, namely, saving natural habitats under the conservation effect of MFULU and improving the landscape patterns of natural habitats under the agglomeration effect of MFULU. The findings provide enlightening implications for formulating land-sharing policies to realize win–win situations between sustainable urban development and a resilient ecological environment.