Association of Non-Invasive Markers with Significant Fibrosis in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Cross-Sectional Study

Purpose: The identification of significant fibrosis is critical for predicting the prognosis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This study aimed to compare the predictive value of chitinase-3-like protein 1 (CHl3L1) and other non-invasive biomarkers, as well as to establish a novel non-invasive diagnostic model for assessing the risk of significant fibrosis in NAFLD. Patients and Methods: A total of 71 patients with confirmed NAFLD based on liver biopsy were included in this study. Serum CHI3L1 levels and other non-invasive fibrosis assessment measures were determined. The aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) were calculated to assess the diagnostic superiority of serum CHI3L1 compared to other non-invasive fibrosis assessment measures. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify relevant variables for constructing a diagnostic model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of each index, including the area under ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. A nomogram was established based on the logistic regression model. Results: Serum CHI3LI levels were found to be higher in NAFLD patients with significant fibrosis compared to those without significant fibrosis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that aspartate aminotransferase (AST), type IV collagen (IV-C), CHI3L1, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were identified as potential independent risk factors associated with significant fibrosis in patients. The AUC of CHI3L1 for diagnosing significant liver fibrosis was 0.716 (0.596,0.836), with the optimal cut-off point of 125.315. The nomogram incorporating CHI3LI, AST, IV-C, and LSM further improved the potential predictive value, with an AUC for diagnosing significant fibrosis of 0.864 (0.766,0.962). This was superior to IV-C, CHI3L1, LSM, and APRI (all p < 0.05). Conclusion: The diagnostic model constructed by CHI3L1 combined with the existing non-invasive markers AST, IV-C, and LSM can help assess the risk of significant liver fibrosis in NAFLD. Keywords: nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, fibrosis, chitinase 3-like protein 1, liver biopsy, nomogram