Absolute risk prediction for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma adaptable to regional disease burden across diverse regions

医学 绝对风险降低 入射(几何) 人口 人口学 内科学 逻辑回归 风险评估 危险系数 置信区间 环境卫生 计算机安全 计算机科学 光学 物理 社会学
作者
Mengfei Liu,Yi Huang,Hongrui Tian,Chuanhai Guo,Zhen Liu,Anxiang Liu,Haijun Yang,F. Li,Liping Duan,Lin Shen,Qi Wu,Chao Shi,Yaqi Pan,Fangfang Liu,Ying Liu,H. Chen,Zhe Hu,Hong Cai,Zhisong He,Yang Ke
出处
期刊:Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention [American Association for Cancer Research]
标识
DOI:10.1158/1055-9965.epi-24-1465
摘要

Abstract Background:Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) exhibits a long latency period and has a significant geographical disparity in incidence, which underscores the need for models predicting the long-term absolute risk adaptable to regional disease burden. Methods:31,883 participants in a large-scale population-based screening trial (Hua County, China) were enrolled to develop the model. Severe dysplasia and above (SDA) identified at screening or follow-up were defined as the outcome. We calculated the absolute risk in three steps: 1) constructing a relative risk model using logistic regression, 2) calculating the age-specific baseline hazard, and 3) adjusting for the competing risk of all-cause death excluding ESCC. Flexible incidence rate parameters were integrated into the model to ensure its relevance across diverse regions worldwide. Results:A total of 295 SDAs were detected. The relative risk model consisted of old age, male gender, irregular meal pattern, preference for hot or hard food, BMI of less than 22 kg/m2, and ESCC family history. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.753 (95% CI: 0.749-0.757). The averaged 5-year and 10-year absolute risk were 0.53% and 1.30% among participants. Based on our model, we developed an online calculator incorporated flexible incidence rate parameters, demonstrating ideal risk stratification tailored to regions with varying disease burdens (https://pkugenetics.shinyapps.io/escc_risk_prediction/). Conclusions:We developed an absolute risk model to predict individualized long-term risk of ESCC, accounting for local disease burden. Impact:This model has the potential to mitigate the global burden of ESCC by enabling targeted screening and personalized prevention strategies.

科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI
科研通是完全免费的文献互助平台,具备全网最快的应助速度,最高的求助完成率。 对每一个文献求助,科研通都将尽心尽力,给求助人一个满意的交代。
实时播报
情怀应助星语花采纳,获得10
1秒前
007发布了新的文献求助10
1秒前
Mizoresuki应助留胡子的书桃采纳,获得10
1秒前
研友_VZG7GZ应助bxw采纳,获得10
1秒前
danti发布了新的文献求助10
1秒前
科研通AI5应助蓝色逍遥鱼采纳,获得10
1秒前
2秒前
Anderson732发布了新的文献求助10
2秒前
kai发布了新的文献求助10
2秒前
2秒前
2秒前
Chelry完成签到,获得积分10
3秒前
maox1aoxin应助freebird采纳,获得30
3秒前
小马甲应助诚心淇采纳,获得10
3秒前
3秒前
4秒前
腿腿徐发布了新的文献求助10
4秒前
5秒前
5秒前
5秒前
成就紫真完成签到,获得积分10
6秒前
崔win发布了新的文献求助10
6秒前
RC_Wang应助猛男采纳,获得10
6秒前
6秒前
咚咚完成签到,获得积分10
6秒前
7秒前
7秒前
Owen应助JefreeCN采纳,获得10
7秒前
猪嗝铁铁发布了新的文献求助30
7秒前
oneonedog发布了新的文献求助10
7秒前
8秒前
忐忑的骁发布了新的文献求助10
8秒前
wjx发布了新的文献求助10
8秒前
一念初见完成签到,获得积分10
8秒前
小黑哥发布了新的文献求助10
8秒前
一锅炖不下完成签到 ,获得积分10
9秒前
9秒前
英俊的铭应助泯珉采纳,获得10
10秒前
10秒前
852应助aixue采纳,获得10
10秒前
高分求助中
Continuum Thermodynamics and Material Modelling 3000
Production Logging: Theoretical and Interpretive Elements 2700
Mechanistic Modeling of Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Flow in Pipes 2500
Structural Load Modelling and Combination for Performance and Safety Evaluation 1000
Conference Record, IAS Annual Meeting 1977 710
電気学会論文誌D(産業応用部門誌), 141 巻, 11 号 510
Virulence Mechanisms of Plant-Pathogenic Bacteria 500
热门求助领域 (近24小时)
化学 材料科学 生物 医学 工程类 有机化学 生物化学 物理 纳米技术 计算机科学 内科学 化学工程 复合材料 基因 遗传学 物理化学 催化作用 量子力学 光电子学 冶金
热门帖子
关注 科研通微信公众号,转发送积分 3564065
求助须知:如何正确求助?哪些是违规求助? 3137276
关于积分的说明 9421653
捐赠科研通 2837658
什么是DOI,文献DOI怎么找? 1559942
邀请新用户注册赠送积分活动 729224
科研通“疑难数据库(出版商)”最低求助积分说明 717215