Brain structure, amyloid, and behavioral features for predicting clinical progression in subjective cognitive decline

As a potential preclinical stage of Alzheimer's dementia, subjective cognitive decline (SCD) reveals a higher risk of future cognitive decline and conversion to dementia. However, it has not been clear whether SCD status increases the clinical progression of older adults in the context of amyloid deposition, cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), and psychiatric symptoms. We identified 99 normal controls (NC), 15 SCD individuals who developed mild cognitive impairment in the next 2 years (P-SCD), and 54 SCD individuals who did not (S-SCD) from ADNI database with both baseline and 2-year follow-up data. Total white matter hyperintensity (WMH), WMH in deep (DWMH) and periventricular (PWMH) regions, and voxel-wise grey matter volumes were compared among groups. Furthermore, using structural equation modelling method, we constructed path models to explore SCD-related brain changes longitudinally and to determine whether baseline SCD status, age, and depressive symptoms affect participants' clinical outcomes. Both SCD groups showed higher baseline amyloid PET SUVR, baseline PWMH volumes, and larger increase of PWMH volumes over time than NC. In contrast, only P-SCD had higher baseline DWMH volumes and larger increase of DWMH volumes over time than NC. No longitudinal differences in grey matter volume and amyloid was observed among NC, S-SCD, and P-SCD. Our path models demonstrated that SCD status contributed to future WMH progression. Further, baseline SCD status increases the risk of future cognitive decline, mediated by PWMH; baseline depressive symptoms directly contribute to clinical outcomes. In conclusion, both S-SCD and P-SCD exhibited more severe CeVD than NC. The CeVD burden increase was more pronounced in P-SCD. In contrast with the direct association of depressive symptoms with dementia severity progression, the effects of SCD status on future cognitive decline may manifest via CeVD pathologies. Our work highlights the importance of multi-modal longitudinal designs in understanding the SCD trajectory heterogeneity, paving the way for stratification and early intervention in the preclinical stage. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Both S-SCD and P-SCD exhibited more severe CeVD at baseline and a larger increase of CeVD burden compared to NC, while the burden was more pronounced in P-SCD. Baseline SCD status increases the risk of future PWMH and DWMH volume accumulation, mediated by baseline PWMH and DWMH volumes, respectively. Baseline SCD status increases the risk of future cognitive decline, mediated by baseline PWMH, while baseline depression status directly contributes to clinical outcome.