Coronavirus from cities to forests: mapping vulnerable interfaces and hotspots for SARS-CoV-2 spillover from humans to biodiversity

溢出效应 野生动物 野生动物贸易 生物多样性 地理 野生动物保护 栖息地 生态学 生境破碎化 保护生物学 生物 背景(考古学) 人畜共患病 人类-野生动物冲突 一个健康 病毒学 公共卫生 微观经济学 考古 经济 护理部 医学
作者
André Luís Acosta,Fernando Xavier,Antônio Mauro Saraiva,José Sabino,Nuno R. Faria,Éster Cerdeira Sabino,Maria Anice Mureb Salum
出处
期刊:The Lancet Planetary Health [Elsevier BV]
卷期号:5: S15-S15
标识
DOI:10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00099-1
摘要

BackgroundWith the continuous spreading of SARS-CoV-2 globally, the probability for interactions between humans who are infected and wildlife tends to grow intensely, as well as the likelihood of viral spillover from humans to biodiversity. This aspect is of great concern for wildlife conservation and human health, because the list of highly susceptible animal groups that have contracted SARS-CoV-2 (bats, mustelids, and primates) is large and, once infected, these groups can act as vectors and reservoirs, becoming a substrate for viral mutations and recombinations and boosting the risk of new strains emerging, which can return to humans as new diseases. Little is known about the inducing factors facilitating coronavirus spillover from one species to another, but it can be argued that interface zones between wild fauna and humans, which are narrow edges between anthropic (cities, roads, parks, ecotourism sites, and agricultural frontiers) and sylvatic habitat, are zones of increased interaction between humans and wild animals, and thus have a higher probability of viral spillover events than other areas. In a similar context, the habitat compression by forest fragmentation also brings species and infected beings closer, reducing their home ranges and intensifying the risk of spillover among wild populations. Therefore, on the basis of the premise for zoonosis—the greater human–animal interaction, the greater risk of viral spillover—we aimed to identify the most and least susceptible areas to viral spillover in Brazil.MethodsWe developed an approach combining ecological modelling (Biomod2: modelling habitat suitability for 158 bat and 49 primate species) and geographical information systems (by using demographic indicators, roads, and related variables) to map the most and least susceptible areas to spillover in Brazil. This map indicates priority areas for serological surveillance of fauna for monitoring the spillover and circulation of SARS-CoV-2 strains and variants in Brazilian biodiversity.FindingsAmong our most relevant preliminary results, we found that forested areas surrounding the São Paulo Metropolitan Area are among the most susceptible areas for spillover. This resulted from the combination of high contaminated human density and high density of non-human primates interacting with humans in these transitional areas.InterpretationBecause of the high resolution of the results, the map can be useful for action planning and decision making in conservation and health, since susceptible areas denote not only a greater risk of virus jumping from humans to animals, but also of coronaviruses returning from fauna to humans in new viral strains.FundingFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP; 2019/12988-7 and 2018/14389-0).
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