Low-carbon economic dispatch of integrated energy system containing electric hydrogen production based on VMD-GRU short-term wind power prediction

The integration of energy systems (IES) enhances the interaction between the electricity, gas, and heat systems, and the concept of low-carbon development can further reduce the carbon emissions of IES. However, the uncertainty of wind power output and the complexity of different energy chains pose significant challenges to the low-carbon operation of IES. Therefore, this paper proposes a low-carbon economic dispatching strategy for IES containing electric hydrogen production based on short-term wind power prediction. Firstly, a variational mode decomposition- gate recurrent unit network prediction model is employed to enhance the accuracy of ultra-short wind power forecasting, which reduces the impact of wind power output uncertainty on wind power grid connection. Secondly, a refined two-stage P2G operation model for refining the electric hydrogen production device is constructed to decrease the carbon emissions of IES. Thirdly, a thermoelectric integrated demand response model is established to adjust the heat and power demand proportion, further reducing the IES's carbon emissions. Finally, the case study is performed based on IEEE standard system to verify the effectiveness of the proposed strategy. Simulation analysis shows that introducing electrolysis for hydrogen production can reduce IES carbon emissions by 12.90%. In addition, introducing an adjustable thermal-electric comprehensive demand response can reduce IES carbon emissions by 1.543% while lowering the overall cost by 5.24%. The proposed strategies can simultaneously consider the low-carbon and economic aspects of IES.