Impact of climate change on farm-level technical efficiency in Punjab, Pakistan

This paper assessed the impact of climate change on farm-level productivity and technical efficiency in the Punjab province of Pakistan. The stochastic production frontier model was employed at the farm household level for 3 yr of panel data (n = 537) covering 3 cropping systems (rice-wheat, cotton-wheat, and mixed wheat) from 3 different agro-ecologies and 17 of 36 districts of Punjab. Though the use of inputs was found to have a positive impact on farm production, results highlight the strong negative impacts of the increase in the long-run temperature normals and fluctuating precipitation across the crop production seasons. Weather shocks and socioeconomic factors of the farm family significantly contributed to the farm’s technical efficiency. A mean technical efficiency score of 0.82 suggests that with the use of climate-smart technologies and improving farm management involving better use of production inputs, there is potential for improvements in farm-level technical efficiency. The declining trend in the mean technical efficiency due to weather shocks necessitates the adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices. However, this requires that farmers should be supported with targeted coping options for expected weather shocks differentiated by crop production zones. A well-coordinated climate and extension service can support the adoption of climate-smart agriculture for sustainable crop production.