Overall and non‐lung cancer incidence and mortality in the National Lung Screening Trial: Opportunities for multi‐cancer early detection

Abstract Background Currently recommended cancer screening programs address only part of the overall population cancer burden. Even populations deemed high‐risk for certain individual cancers experience a considerable potential burden of other cancers. However, few published cancer screening trials report the incidence of untargeted cancers. Methods The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), initiated in 2002–2004, was a randomized controlled trial of lung cancer screening in adults with ≥30 pack‐years of smoking. Active follow‐up for incident invasive cancers continued through 2009. Results Among 53,229 NLST subjects (median follow‐up 6.5 years after randomization), the incidence of lung cancer was 615 per 100,000 person‐years (32% of 6142 overall first primary incident invasive cancers), and that of non‐lung cancer was 1327 per 100,000 (68%). Non‐lung cancer incidence exceeded that for lung cancer in all 5‐year age categories and all quintiles of smoking pack‐years. Besides lung cancer, the most common cancers were prostate, breast, colon/rectum, bladder, and head/neck; 23% were smoking‐related cancers, and 54% were cancer types lacking recommended population‐based screening modalities (32% excluding prostate). Non‐lung cancer comprised 48% of 1793 cancer deaths. Conclusions In the NLST, only 32% of first primary cancer incidence after study entry was lung, compared with 68% non‐lung. Even in a population at high risk for lung cancer, a single‐cancer screening test misses most cancers. Thus, in combination with existing single‐cancer screening modalities, multi‐cancer screening tests—which address many of the incident non‐lung cancers in this trial—have potential to address a currently inaccessible portion of cancer morbidity and mortality.