Clustering Anomalous Circulations and Their Implications on the Prediction of Minimum 2m Air Temperature over Northeastern China during Winter

Abstract The ERA5 reanalysis during cold months (November-March) of 1979-2020 was used for determining four cluster centroids through the k-means for classifying regional anomalies of the daily geopotential height at 500 hPa (H500) over northeastern China. EOF was used to reduce dimensionality. Four clusters were linked to the EOF patterns with clear meteorological meanings, which are associated with the evolutions of ridge and trough over northeastern China. Those systems relate to warm and cold advections at 850 hPa. In each H500 cluster, the advection is the major contributor leading to temperature changes at 850 hPa, which significantly relates to the changes and anomalies of daily minimum air temperature at 2m (T2min). Furthermore, the jet activities over Asia relate to more or less occurrence of specific H500 clusters in jet phases. This is because anomalous westerlies are generally in favor of positive anomalies of vorticity tendency at 500 hPa. For the reforecasts during 2004-2019 in the CMA S2S model, the hit rates above 50% for all the H500 clusters are within 9.5 days, which are in between those for the first two and the last two clusters. The correct prediction of H500 anomalies improves the T2min prediction up to 12 days, compared with 8 days for the incorrect one. The good prediction of the jet activities leads to more accurate prediction of H500 anomalies. Therefore, improvement of the model prediction of the jet activities and the H500 anomalies will lead to better prediction of winter weather near the ground over northeastern China.