Physics-based earthquake simulations of the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Daliangshan-Xiaojiang fault system in Southwestern China

Seismic hazard evaluation is important for urban construction and earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation. However, because of the long recurrence intervals of large earthquakes (hundreds to thousands of years), seismic hazard assessment based on relatively short-term (tens of years) observational seismic catalogs is difficult. Synthetic seismic catalogs provide a useful way to assess long-term seismic hazards. Based on the Coulomb failure criterion, we apply a quasi-static physics-based earthquake simulator (Virtual Quake) in a tectonically complicated region with several major strike-slip faults, namely, the Anninghe, Zemuhe, Daliangshan and Xiaojiang (AZDX) faults, in southwestern China. The slip rates of these major faults are constrained by GPS data, and friction is constrained by laboratory experiments. Considering the stress interactions among the fault system, a synthetic catalog over 20,000 years is simulated. The simulated catalog shows consistency with the observed seismicity in the spatial distribution of large earthquakes, b value and mean seismic rate. Based on the synthetic catalog, the mean recurrence intervals and probabilities of the recurrence interval for strong earthquakes (M ≥ 7) in each fault section are presented in detail. Moreover, qualitative analysis of seismic hazards is conducted for the AZDX fault region. Our results provide a helpful index to evaluate seismic hazards in such a complicated region. Evaluating seismic hazards is important for building codes, risk prevention and mitigation. Because large earthquakes are rare, modern observed earthquake catalogs are too short to evaluate seismic hazards precisely. Thus, numerical simulations are used to obtain synthetic earthquake catalogs for seismic hazard evaluation. Here, we present a physics-based model of stress accumulation, transfer and release, and simulate an earthquake sequence in the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Daliangshan-Xiaojiang fault system, southwestern China. Thus, we obtain a synthetic catalog over 20,000 years. By comparing the spatial distributions of large earthquakes, b values, and mean seismic rates of the synthetic catalog and observed catalog, we find that the synthetic catalog is consistent with the observed catalog. Based on the synthetic seismic catalog, we summarize the mean strong seismic recurrence interval and the probability of the recurrence interval for each fault section. Qualitative analysis of seismic hazards is conducted for the AZDX fault region. Our results can help to evaluate long-term seismic hazards in a multiple-fault system.