Development and validation of LightGBM algorithm for optimizing of Helicobacter pylori antibody during the minimum living guarantee crowd based gastric cancer screening program in Taizhou, China

Gastric cancer continues to be a significant health concern in China, with a high incidence rate. To mitigate its impact, early detection and treatment is key. However, conducting large-scale endoscopic gastric cancer screening is not feasible in China. Instead, a more appropriate approach would be to initially screen high-risk groups and follow up with endoscopic testing as needed. We conducted a study on 25,622 asymptomatic participants aged 45–70 years from a free gastric cancer screening program in the Taizhou city government's Minimum Living Guarantee Crowd (MLGC) initiative. Participants completed questionnaires, blood tests, and underwent gastrin-17 (G-17), pepsinogen I and II (PGI and PGII), and H. pylori IgG antibody (IgG) assessments. Using the light gradient boosting machine (lightGBM) algorithm, we developed a predictive model for gastric cancer risk. In the full model, F1 score was 2.66%, precision was 1.36%, and recall was 58.14%. In the high-risk model, F1 score was 2.51%, precision was 1.27%, and recall was 94.55%. Excluding IgG, the F1 score was 2.73%, precision was 1.40%, and recall was 68.62%. We conclude that H. pylori IgG appears to be able to be excluded from the prediction model without significantly affecting its performance, which is important from a health economic point of view. It suggests that screening indicators can be optimized, and expenditures reduced. These findings can have important implications for policymakers, as we can focus resources on other important aspects of gastric cancer prevention and control.