A Reliable Procedure to Estimate the Rupture Propagation Directions from Source Directivity: The 2016–2018 Central Italy Seismic Sequence

Abstract We present a new approach to estimate the predominant direction of rupture propagation during a seismic sequence. A fast estimation of the rupture propagation direction is essential to know the azimuthal distribution of shaking around the seismic source and the associated risks for the earthquake occurrence. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it is conceptually reliable, simple, and fast (near real time). The approach uses the empirical Green’s function technique and can be applied directly to the waveforms without requiring the deconvolution of the instrumental response and without knowing a priori the attenuation model and the orientation of the activated fault system. We apply the method to the 2016–2017 Amatrice-Visso-Norcia high-energy and long-lasting earthquake series in central Italy, which affected a large area up to 80 km along strike, with more than 130,000 events of small-to-moderate magnitude recorded until the end of August 2022. Most of the selected events analyzed in this study have a magnitude greater than 4.4 and only four seismic events have a magnitude in the range of 3.3–3.7. Our results show that the complex activated normal fault system has a rupture direction mainly controlled by the pre-existing normal faults and by the orientation of the reactivated faults. In addition, the preferred direction of rupture propagation is also controlled by the presence of fluid in the pre-existing structural discontinuities. We discuss the possible role of fluids as a cause of bimaterial interface. Another important finding from our analysis is that the spatial evolution of seismicity is controlled by the directivity.