Comparison of vapour-exchange methods for predicting hourly twig fuel moisture contents of larch and birch stands in the Daxinganling Region, China

The Daxinganling Region, in Heilongjiang Province, China, has experienced considerable losses to forest resources owing to a recent increase in forest fire frequency. This necessitates the predictions of fire behaviour in this region, which requires assessment of fuel moisture content (FMC) at appropriate space and time intervals. Here, we compare and extrapolate results of vapour-exchange methods for predicting hourly moisture contents of downed wood. The FMC of larch and birch twig fuels was measured at 1-h intervals at different slope positions with respect to meteorological factors. The twigs were categorised based on diameter and degree of decay. The Nelson and Simard methods (which consider equilibrium moisture content and the associated time lag) and direct regression method (which allows direct attainment of the FMC) were used. Both Nelson and Simard methods predicted hourly twig moisture content more accurately than the direct regression method. The Simard method was the most accurate, with the lowest mean absolute error and mean relative error as well as relatively small variation coefficients based on results of the extrapolation analysis. Further, the resulting models applied to needle-leaved and lightly decomposed fuels performed better than for the broad-leaved and badly decomposed fuels on evaluation parameters.