APS (Age, Platelets, 2D Shear-Wave Elastography) Score Predicts Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B

Background Two-dimensional (2D) shear-wave elastography (SWE) has been considered to be useful in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Purpose To develop a risk model using 2D SWE to predict HCC in patients with CHB and to compare its predictive value with that of other models. Materials and Methods Patients with biopsy-proven CHB who underwent US and 2D SWE between April 2011 and December 2015 were enrolled in this study. After 2D SWE and biopsy were performed, the patients received regular follow-up for the detection of HCC. The scoring system was developed by dividing the parameters of the Cox proportional hazards model by the smallest parameter and simplifying the assigned points to integers. The predictive performance of the new score was compared with that of other scores. Results Among the 654 patients (mean age, 37 years; range, 30-43 years; 510 men), 26 developed HCC. The variables of age, platelet count, and liver stiffness measurement at 2D SWE were weighted to develop the so-called APS score, with a cutoff of 60 showing the best discrimination for HCC risk. The APS score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.89) was superior to that of the Chinese University HCC prediction score constructed from age, albumin level, bilirubin level, hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA level, and cirrhosis (AUC, 0.70; P = .005) and slightly higher than that of the guide with age, gender, HBV DNA level, core promoter mutations, and cirrhosis, or GAG-HCC score (AUC, 0.82; P = .052). In patients who underwent transient elastography, the AUC of the APS score was 0.79, compared with 0.82 for the modified risk estimation for HCC in CHB, or mREACH-B, score (P = .05). The APS score performed better in patients regardless of whether antiviral treatment was used, inflammation grade was low or high, or alanine aminotransferase levels were normal or high (all P > .05). Conclusion The APS score based on only the patient's baseline liver stiffness measurement at two-dimensional shear-wave elastography, age, and platelet count is valuable for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article.