可预测性
厄尔尼诺南方涛动
地球系统科学
气候学
气候变化
气候科学
环境科学
环境资源管理
地理
海洋学
地质学
量子力学
物理
作者
Michael J. McPhaden,Stephen E. Zebiak,Michael H. Glantz
出处
期刊:Science
[American Association for the Advancement of Science]
日期:2006-12-15
卷期号:314 (5806): 1740-1745
被引量:1756
标识
DOI:10.1126/science.1132588
摘要
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Niño and cold La Niña events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997–1998 El Niño, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO's influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.
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