Combination of ultra-early hematoma growth and blend sign for predicting hematoma expansion and functional outcome

Ultra-early hematoma growth (uHG) in acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) has been well established and can improve spot sign in the prediction of hematoma expansion (HE) and poor outcome. This study aimed to investigate whether uHG can improve blend sign as a promising combining marker to stratify HE and poor outcome. A consecutive cohort study in patients with primary ICH conducted in the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University. Demographic characteristics, medical history, clinical features and radiological characteristics were recorded. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independently risk factors of HE and poor outcome. β coefficient was calculated for combining markers using the logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were fitted to calculate predictive values for each variable and combining markers to stratify HE and poor outcome. Among 257 ICH patients in the study, there were 85 (33.1 %) patients with HE. Blend sign and uHG were independently associated with HE and poor outcome (P < 0.05). Age, admission GCS score, presence of IVH at baseline CT were also independently associated with poor outcome (P < 0.05). Combining marker including uHG and blend sign had the best AUC (0.846, 0.80-0.90), sensitivity (87.1 %), NPV (91.0 %), and -LR (0.2) than single variable to stratify HE. Combining marker including uHG, blend sign and risk clinical factors had the best AUC (0.800, 0.75-0.85), sensitivity (75.6 %), NPV (73.2 %), -LR (0.33) than single variable and the ICH score to stratify poor outcome. ICH score had the highest PPV (80.3 %) and + LR (3.68) to stratify poor outcome than other variables. The combination of both uHG and blend sign could be a simple and useful tool for better stratification of HE and poor outcome.