Dynamic interaction of water–economic–social–ecological environment complex system under the framework of water resources carrying capacity

Dynamic interactions occur among water resources, the economy, society, and the ecological environment in the water resources carrying capacity system, which jointly determines the comprehensive level of water carrying capacity (WRCC). To reveal the interaction relationship and degree of interaction among the subsystems of WRCC, this study introduced the PVAR model into the field of water resources carrying capacity for the first time. From the perspectives of water resources, the economy, society, and the ecological environment, this study discussed the dynamic relationship within WRCC. The results show that the water resources subsystem is the core of WRCC; the impulse response functions of the water resources subsystem and the economic and social subsystems conform to the EKC curve hypothesis; there is a positive mutual promotion between the water resources and the ecological environment subsystem; and the four subsystems have the greatest and a positive influence on themselves. The relationship among subsystems verifies the feasibility of dividing the WRCC evaluation framework from the perspectives of water resources, the economy, society, and the ecological environment. And improving the WRCC in the Yellow River Basin requires vigorously promoting the implementation of water-saving policies and coordinating the relationships among subsystems. • Dynamic interactions within water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) are studied. • Panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is introduced into WRCC study. • Water resources subsystem is the core within WRCC. • Competition for water exists among economic, social, and ecological subsystems. • Relationships between economy, society and water resources are conform to EKC.