Event Prediction and Affective Forecasting in Depressive Cognition: Using Emotion as Information About the Future

Depression is characterized by a bleak view of the future, but the mechanisms through which depressed mood is integrated into basic processes of future-oriented cognition are unclear. we hypothesized that dysphoric individuals' predictions of what will happen in the future (likelihood estimation) and how the future will feel (affective forecasting) are attributable to individual differences in incorporating present emotion as judgment-relevant information. Dysphoric individuals (n = 77) made pessimistic likelihood estimates and blunted positive affective forecasts relative to controls (n = 84). these differences were mediated by dysphoric individuals' tendencies to rely on negative emotion as information more than controls—and on positive emotion less—independent of anhedonia. these findings suggest that (1) blunted positive affective forecasting is a distinctive component of depressive future-oriented cognition, and (2) future-oriented cognitive processes are linked not just to current emotional state, but also to individual variation in using that emotion as information. this role of individual differences elucidates basic mechanisms in future-oriented cognition, and suggests routes for intervention on interrelated cognitive and affective processes in depression.