New indices system for quantifying the nexus between economic-social development, natural resources consumption, and environmental pollution in China during 1978–2018

It is meaningful to study how China can maintain the sustainable utilization of natural resources and the continuous improvement of environmental conditions while ensuring the stable development of the economy and society. In this study, a new indices system was proposed for the analysis of nexus among social-economic-natural resource-environment complex systems following the DPSIR (Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Respond) framework, CCD (Coupling Coordination Degree) analysis and VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive) model were applied for quantifying the synergy and trade-off of China in the nexus framework. Results showed that: (1) Although China's rapid development has caused big consumption of natural resources and increasing pollutants discharges during 1978–2018, China has not got into trouble of extreme resource depletion and ecosystem collapse. On the contrary, China guaranteed food supply, stopped forest degradation, and avoided pollution-induced healthy crises & life-shortening. (2) Adjustment of water pollution industries and the increase of wastewater treatment investment contributed 39% and 37% to the reduction of water pollutant discharge, respectively. The contribution of energy structure adjustment to acid rain control was 26%. The pollutants discharged in no less than 70% of the provinces are strictly controlled below the environmental capacity. The increase of fertilizer application and effective irrigated area contributed 32% to China's grain increase, and China's grain self-sufficiency rate has been maintained above 110%. The improvement of the water-saving irrigation rate contributed 28% to the reduction of water consumption. The reduction of comprehensive efficiency contributed 23.8% to the decrease in energy consumptions per GDP. The CCD assessment showed that China has entered a phase of pre-eminently coordinated development since 2013.