Distribution and risk assessment of multiple elements in rice from southeast China using Monte Carlo simulation

百分位 危险系数 毒理 风险评估 统计 环境科学 环境化学 化学 重金属 数学 计算机科学 生物 计算机安全
作者
Xiaodong Pan,Jianlong Han,Haitao Shen
出处
期刊:Journal of Food Composition and Analysis [Elsevier BV]
卷期号:129: 106103-106103 被引量:7
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.jfca.2024.106103
摘要

This study investigated the distribution of 24 elements in rice samples cultivated in Zhejiang, southeast China and estimated the health risks to local consumers using Monte Carlo simulation. The mean concentrations of the primary toxic elements As, Cd, Cr, Hg, Ni, Mo, Pb, and Sb were 0.094, 0.076, 0.046, 0.003, 0.218, 0.671, 0.018, and 0.002 mg kg-1, respectively. Correlation analyses revealed strong positive correlations between Ca-V, Ca-Fe, Se-Cd, Se-Hg, and Sr-Mo. Target hazard quotients (THQs) were adopted for non-carcinogenic risk assessment, and the THQs at the 50th percentile were all less than one, indicating that consumers experienced no deleterious effects from the consumption of rice containing these elements. The descending order for all age groups was THQ-Cd > THQ-As > THQ-Mo > THQ-Mn > THQ-Zn > THQ-Hg > THQ-Ni > THQ-Sb. When evaluating the THQ for multiple elements, the certainties of a hazard index greater than one for children, teens and adults were 74.0%, 81.1%, and 78.0%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the Cd concentration and ingestion rate were the two principal factors contributing to the total risk. In addition, potential carcinogenic risk was indicated. These results suggest that the need for increased monitoring of toxic elements in rice.
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