分水岭
环境科学
物流分析
富营养化
流域面积
农业
牲畜
水文学(农业)
地表径流
人均
肥料
城市化
水资源管理
营养物
生态学
工程类
人口
人口学
岩土工程
机器学习
社会学
计算机科学
生物
作者
Wei Liu,Qin Tian,Mengting Wu,Ying Feng,Yalan Zhang,Evgeny Abakumov,Ekaterina Maksimova,Wenjuan Wang,Daishe Wu,Chao Han,Xianchuan Xie,Jiancheng Cheng,Xinlong Hua,Sunlin Chi,Jinying Xu
出处
期刊:Water Research
[Elsevier]
日期:2023-10-01
卷期号:245: 120546-120546
被引量:5
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.watres.2023.120546
摘要
Understanding the historical patterns of phosphorus (P) cycling is essential for sustainable P management and eutrophication mitigation in watersheds. Currently, there is a lack of long-term watershed-scale models that analyze the flow of P substances and quantify the socioeconomic patterns of P flow. This study adopted a watershed perspective and incorporated crucial economic and social subsystems related to P production, consumption, and emissions throughout the entire life cycle. Based on this approach, a bottom-up watershed P flow analysis model was developed to quantify the P cycle for the first time in the Poyang Lake watershed from 1950 to 2020 and to explore the driving factors that influence its strength by analyzing multi-year P flow results. In general, the P cycle in the Poyang Lake watershed was no longer a naturally dominated cycle but significantly influenced by human activities during the flow dynamics between 1950 and 2015. Agricultural intensification and expansion of large-scale livestock farming continue to enhance the P flow in the study area. Fertilizer P inputs from cultivation account for approximately 60% of the total inputs to farming systems, but phosphate fertilizer utilization continues to decline. Feed P inputs have continued to increase since 2007. The expansion of large-scale farming and the demand for urbanization are the main factors leading to changes in feed P input patterns. The P utilization rate for livestock farming (PUEa) is progressively higher than international levels, with PUEa increasing from 0.64% (1950) to 9.7% (2020). Additionally, per capita food P consumption in the watershed increased from 0.67 kg to 0.80 kg between 1950 and 2020. The anthropogenic P emissions have increased from 1.67 × 104 t (1950) to 8.73 × 104 t (2020), with an average annual growth rate of 2.41%. Watershed-wide P pollution emissions have increased by more than five-fold. Population growth and agricultural development are important drivers of structural changes in P flows in the study area, and they induce changes in social conditions, including agricultural production, dietary structure, and consumption levels, further dominating the cyclic patterns of P use, discharge, and recycling. This study provides a broader and applicable P flow model to measure the characteristics of the P cycle throughout the watershed social system as well as provides methodological support and policy insights for large lakes in rapidly developing areas or countries to easily present P flow structures and sustainably manage P resources.
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