Assessment of late gadolinium enhancement in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy improves risk stratification based on current guidelines

Abstract Background and Aims Identifying patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) who are candidates for implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implantation in primary prevention for sudden cardiac death (SCD) is crucial. The aim of this study was to externally validate the 2022 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model and other guideline-based ICD class of recommendation (ICD-COR) models and explore the utility of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) in further risk stratification. Methods Seven hundred and seventy-four consecutive patients who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging were retrospectively enrolled. Results Forty-six (5.9%) patients reached the SCD-related endpoint during 7.4 ± 2.5 years of follow-up. Patients suffering from SCD had higher ESC Risk-SCD score (4.3 ± 2.4% vs. 2.8 ± 2.1%, P < .001) and LGE extent (13.7 ± 9.4% vs. 4.9 ± 6.6%, P < .001). Compared with the 2014 ESC model, the 2022 ESC model showed increased area under the curve (.76 vs. .63), sensitivity (76.1% vs. 43.5%), positive predictive value (16.8% vs. 13.6%), and negative predictive value (98.1% vs. 95.9%). The C-statistics for SCD prediction of 2011 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA), 2014 ESC, 2020 AHA/ACC, and 2022 ESC models were .68, .64, .76 and .78, respectively. Furthermore, in patients without extensive LGE, LGE ≥5% was responsible for seven-fold SCD risk after multivariable adjustment. Whether in ICD-COR II or ICD-COR III, patients with LGE ≥5% and <15% showed significantly worse prognosis than those with LGE <5% (all P < .001). Conclusions The 2022 ESC model performed better than the 2014 ESC model with especially improved sensitivity. LGE enabled further risk stratification based on current guidelines.