Predictors of lung function trajectories in population‐based studies: A systematic review

Abstract Despite the growing body of evidence on lung function trajectories over the life course and their risk factors, the literature has not been systematically synthesized. Publications related to lung function trajectories were identified from PubMed, EMBASE and CINAHL databases. Two authors independently identified publications for inclusion according to predefined selection criteria. Studies that modelled lung function trajectories and reported associated exposures were included. Meta‐analyses could not be conducted due to heterogeneity in the exposures and methods used to model lung function trajectories. Nine publications were eligible for inclusion of which four used group‐based trajectory modelling to model lung function trajectories, while five used latent profile analysis. Studies with repeated lung function measurements over the life course identified more trajectories than others. Only one study spanning from childhood to middle age reported catch‐up trajectory. The following childhood risk factors for subnormal lung function trajectories were observed in at least across two studies: low birth weight, early wheezing, asthma, allergic sensitization, eczema, allergic rhinitis, lower respiratory tract infections, family history of asthma and second‐hand smoke exposure. Adult active asthma and personal cigarette smoking were observed to be associated with accelerated decline lung trajectories. Our review identified 10 risk factors associated with the growth, catch‐up, reduced plateau and decline trajectories of lung function. Intervention directed at childhood asthma and infections, and tobacco smoke exposure at all ages would help promote lung health and prevent subnormal lung function trajectories.