Breast cancer incidence by age at discovery of mammographic abnormality in women participating in French organized screening campaigns

Statistical modeling was already predicted the occurrence/prognosis of breast cancer from previous radiological findings. This study predicts the breast cancer risk by the age at discovery of mammographic abnormality in the French breast cancer screening program.This was a cohort study.The study included 261,083 women who meet the inclusion criteria: aged 50-74 years, living in French departments (Ain, Doubs, Haute-Saône, Jura, Territoire-de-Belfort, and Yonne), with at least two mammograms between January 1999 and December 2017, of which the first was 'normal/benign'. The incidence of each abnormality (microcalcifications, spiculated mass, obscured mass, architectural distortion, and asymmetric density) was first estimated, then the breast cancer risk was predicted secondly according to the age at discovery of each mammographic abnormality, using an actuarial life table and a Cox model.Overall breast cancer (6326 cases) incidence was 3.3 (3.0; 3.1)/1000 person-years. The breast cancer incidence increased proportionally with the discovery age of the speculated mass and microcalcifications. The incidence was twice as high when the spiculated mass age of discovery was ≥70 (12.2 [10.4; 14.4]) compared with age 50-54 years (5.8 [5.1; 6.7]). Depending on the spiculated mass discovery age, the breast cancer risk increased by at least 40% between the age groups 55-59 years (1.4 [1.0; 1.8]) and ≥70 years (2.4 [1.9; 3.3]). Whatever the abnormality, the incidence of breast cancer was higher when it was present in only one breast.The study highlights a stable incidence of breast cancer between successive mammograms, an increased risk of breast cancer with the finding age of spiculated mass and microcalcifications. The reduced delay between the abnormality discovery date and the breast cancer diagnosis date would justify a specific follow-up protocol after the finding of these two abnormalities.