Wrist accelerometer temporal analysis as a prognostic tool for aged care residents: A sub‐study of the ReMInDAR trial

Abstract Background Objective measures for screening, prioritizing, and planning care for frail individuals are essential for appropriate aged care provision. This study evaluates metrics derived from actigraphy measures (captured by wrist accelerometer) as a digital biomarker to identify frail individuals at risk of adverse outcomes, including death, hospitalization, and cognitive decline. Methods This was a secondary study using data from a randomized controlled trial assessing the effectiveness of an ongoing pharmacist service in residential aged care facilities. Three metrics are studied and compared: the Frailty Index, the daily time spent in light time activity, and the temporal correlation of the actigraphy signal, measured by detrended fluctuation analysis. The association between actigraphy‐derived metrics at baseline and adverse events within 12 months (death, cognitive decline, and hospitalizations) was assessed using logistic regression. Results Actigraphy records were available for 213 participants living in aged‐care, median age of 85 years. Individuals with higher temporal correlation (activity is less random) were at lower risk of death (Standardized OR: 0.49; 95% CI 0.34, 0.7, p < 0.001) and hospitalization (Standardized OR: 0.57; 95% CI 0.42, 0.77, p < 0.001) in 12 months, but there was no difference in cognitive decline (Standardized OR: 1; 95% CI 0.74, 1.35, p = 0.98). The predictive model that included temporal correlation had an area under the curve of 0.70 (CI 0.60–0.80) for death and 0.64 (CI 0.54–0.72) for hospitalization. Conclusion Temporal correlation of the actigraphy signal from aged care residents was strongly associated with death and hospitalization, but not cognitive decline. Digital biomarkers may have a place as an objective, accurate, and low‐cost patient metric to support risk stratification and clinical planning.