Predicting the effect of mutations to investigate recent events of selection across 60,472 Escherichia coli strains

Microbial genomics studies focusing on the dynamics of selection have often used a small number of distant genomes. As a result, they could only analyze mutations that had become fixed during the divergence between species. However, thousands of genomes of some species are now available in public databases, thanks to high-throughput sequencing. These data provide a more complete picture of the polymorphisms segregating within a species, offering a unique insight into the processes that shape the recent evolution of a species. In this study, we present GLASS (Gene-Level Amino-acid Score Shift), a selection test that is based on the predicted effects of amino acid changes. By comparing the distribution of effects of mutations observed in a gene to the expectation in the absence of selection, GLASS can quantify the intensity of selection. We applied GLASS to a dataset of 60,472 Escherichia coli strains and used this to reexamine the longstanding debate about the role of essentiality versus expression level in the rate of protein evolution. We found that selection has contrasting short-term and long-term dynamics, with essential genes being subject to strong purifying selection in the short term, while expression level determines the rate of gene evolution in the long term. GLASS also found an overrepresentation of inactivating mutations in specific transcription factors, such as efflux pump repressors, which is consistent with selection for antibiotic resistance. These gene-inactivating polymorphisms do not reach fixation, suggesting another contrast between short-term fitness gains and long-term counterselection.