China’s Impact on the Global Potash Market

Abstract This chapter examines China’s impact on the global potash market. When China emerged as dominant importer of potash, the global market presented many similarities with the global iron ore market. It was heavily concentrated, had been stable for decades, and was home to a negotiated benchmark pricing regime. In the potash case, the emergence of China was followed by the fall of one of the two largest global marketing cartels, the Belarusian Potash Company, in 2013. Overall, however, the benchmark pricing system survives until today (2023), with China as the lead benchmark price negotiator. The global potash pricing regime saw some liberalization but has shown more resilience than in the iron ore case. This chapter argues that the explanation lies in the balance of market power between Chinese domestic and global market stakeholders, especially the high level of market coordination, procurement, and negotiation by Chinese importers.