Risk Measurement Model of Investment Strategy for Incremental Distribution Planning Considering Multiple Scenarios

In order to reduce the investment risk of power grid enterprises and improve the investment benefits of enterprises, this article sorts out the types of new distribution network pilots, and proposes two types of incremental power distribution business scenarios, public welfare and commercial, and analyzes the uncertain factors that affect grid investment. Introduced the non-profit incremental distribution network investment loss function and the commercial incremental distribution network investment net present value expectation, constructed the public welfare and commercial incremental distribution risk measurement models, and conducted a sensitivity analysis of risk factors, Respectively proposed public welfare and commercial incremental power distribution investment strategies. Based on case assumptions, this paper analyzes the case of the public welfare incremental distribution network risk measurement model and the commercial incremental distribution network risk measurement model, and obtains the public welfare and commercial risk measurement evaluation results, which verify the effectiveness of the model. It provides a guiding role for grid companies in terms of new distribution network investment.