债务
经济
消费(社会学)
主权违约
新兴市场
违约
大流行
财政空间
金融市场
福利
社会距离
货币经济学
业务
发展经济学
2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)
主权
宏观经济学
财务
主权债务
医学
市场经济
疾病
政治学
社会学
病理
政治
法学
传染病(医学专业)
社会科学
作者
Cristina Arellano,Yan Bai,Gabriel Mihalache
标识
DOI:10.1093/restud/rdad058
摘要
Abstract Emerging markets have experienced large human and economic costs from coronavirus disease 2019, and their tight fiscal space has limited the support extended to their citizens. We study the impact of an epidemic on economic and health outcomes by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a sovereign default model. The sovereign’s option to default tightens fiscal space and results in an epidemic with limited mitigation and depressed consumption. A quantitative analysis of our model accounts well for the dynamics of fatalities, social distancing, consumption, sovereign debt, and spreads in Latin America. We find that because of default risk, the welfare cost of the pandemic is about a third higher than it is in a version of the model with perfect financial markets. We study debt relief programs and find a compelling case for their implementation. These programs deliver large social gains, improving health and economic outcomes for the country at no cost to international lenders or financial institutions.
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