Assessing and predicting changes in ecosystem service values based on land use/cover change in the Bohai Rim coastal zone

Land use/cover change (LUCC) in the Bohai Rim coastal zone has accelerated as a result of rampant economic development, which has directly caused many negative effects on ecosystem functions and services. Based on multi-temporal land use data (2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015), the benefit transfer method was used to assess the ecosystem service value (ESV) of the Bohai Rim coastal zone, and the impact of LUCC on ecosystem services was studied. Multi-scenario simulations for 2025 were conducted using the future land use simulation model. The result of the analysis showed that during the period from 2000 to 2015, the total ESV lost was 22.09 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 3.80%. The spatial distribution of the ESV showed a certain regularity, with obvious characteristics of a land-sea gradient change. As the distance from the coastline increased, the ESV per unit area gradually declined. Compared with those in 2015, the total ESVs of the socio-economic development scenario and the business-as-usual scenario in 2025 showed a declining trend, while they increased under the ecological protection priority scenario. Under the ecological protection priority scenario, regulating services and support services increased significantly, but those declined dramatically under the socio-economic development scenario. The patterns of LUCC are the main reasons for the decrease in ESV. This research provides a theoretical basis and support for the development and utilization of coastal space and the improvement of “ecological-economic-social” benefits; additionally, the results provide support for scientific decision-making services for the sustainable use of resources in the coastal zone and for the sustainable management of ecosystems.